中國三十強飼(si)料企(qi)業當前正處于如下(xia)四大困惑之(zhi)中。一孔之(zhi)見，姑妄言之(zhi)。
Based on my personal opinion, currently, there are four important dilemmas which the top 30 feed companies in China face.
一(yi)、本土(tu)化還(huan)是(shi)國(guo)際化之惑
(Localization Internationalization)
以泰國(guo)(guo)正(zheng)大集(ji)團(tuan)為代(dai)表的外資企業(ye)在中國(guo)(guo)開疆拓(tuo)土取(qu)(qu)得(de)巨大成(cheng)功(gong)；以希望(wang)集(ji)團(tuan)為代(dai)表的本(ben)土企業(ye)在越(yue)南等國(guo)(guo)家(jia)攻(gong)城拔寨取(qu)(qu)得(de)了卓(zhuo) 越(yue)成(cheng)就。事實告訴我們，商業(ye)無國(guo)(guo)界。許多(duo)偉大企業(ye)的發(fa)展歷程證明，國(guo)(guo)門之(zhi)內無名企。
An important trend in recent years is the increased internationalization of global markets. Foreign enterprises, such as CP Group Thailand, have achieved great success by exploiting the Chinese market. Chinese feed enterprises, such as New Hope Group, have expanded overseas with the prospect of claiming many achievements in foreign countries like Vietnam. These facts signify the importance of the saying that “business knows no borders.” Throughout the course of development, to be successful, enterprises could pursue neither a closed-door nor isolationist policy.
中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)強大的(de)過程現實(shi)上也必然(ran)伴隨著資本、技術、市場的(de)向外擴張，這(zhe)刺激著中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)飼料行業(ye)的(de)領軍企業(ye)躍(yue)躍(yue)欲試于國(guo)際化(hua)(hua)的(de)發展。截然(ran)對立的(de)觀點則認為，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)是全(quan)世界有潛力的(de)市場，本土企業(ye)國(guo)際化(hua)(hua)發展是舍(she)近(jin)求遠(yuan)、舍(she)本逐末，況且中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)飼料企業(ye)無(wu)(wu)論是股東還(huan)是管理(li)團(tuan)隊(dui)的(de)素(su)養都達不到國(guo)際化(hua)(hua)的(de)要求，盲目國(guo)際化(hua)(hua)無(wu)(wu)異于飛蛾撲火、自取滅亡。西諺有云：“離家越遠(yuan)，離失敗越近(jin)。”
The successful growth development of China is accompanied by the broad expansion of capital, technology, markets; these accomplishments greatly encourage Chinese feed enterprises to pursue internationalization. However, the opposing viewpoint insists on localization, based on the notion that China is the market with the highest growth potential in the world today. Proponents of this viewpoint believe there is no need to achieve internationalization simpy for the sake of internationalization; that is, there is no need to strive after something unattainable, meanwhile forgoing substantial opportunities immediately at hand. Moreover, the scale of Chinese feed enterprises the will of shareholders management teams may yet have reached the level required to successfully expand abroad. As is often the case, operating developing businesses far away the core, can lead to failure – as encapsulated by the old Western proverb, “the farther away hometown, the closer to failure.”
此爭論(lun)曠日已(yi)久，難有結論(lun)。我的看法是中國(guo)(guo)(guo)飼料企業應該(gai)首先(xian)立足國(guo)(guo)(guo)內市場，取(qu)得優勢(shi)地位(wei)后放眼(yan)周(zhou)邊，尤其是越南、老撾、柬埔寨、緬甸、朝鮮、哈(ha)薩克斯坦(tan)等鄰國(guo)(guo)(guo)。對于印度(du)、俄羅斯、韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)、日本等鄰國(guo)(guo)(guo)，市場雖(sui)大但進(jin)入難度(du)亦(yi)大，不宜投資。
In weighing the pros cons of localization versus internationalization, it is difficult to conclude which course is preferable. my point of view, the primary strategy of Chinese feed enterprises should be to establish dominance in the domestic market, then move to neighboring, but less-developed countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, North Korea, Kazakhstan. Indeed, in spite of larger market sizes, it would be much harder to invest in neighboring but well-developed countries such as India, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia.
二、專一化(hua)還是多元化(hua)之(zhi)惑
(Focus Diversification)
盡管(guan)全世界大(da)多(duo)數企(qi)業(ye)都是(shi)靠(kao)“諾基亞模式”即專業(ye)化(hua)經營，專注于(yu)唯(wei) 一選(xuan)定的(de)(de)領域并取(qu)得(de)成(cheng)功；但也有如美國GE(通用電氣公司)者橫空出世，憑(ping)借多(duo)元化(hua)發展取(qu)得(de)巨大(da)成(cheng)功。中國正(zheng)處于(yu)由混沌初開向秩序井然的(de)(de)成(cheng)熟社會過渡的(de)(de)時期，眼前(qian)活生生的(de)(de)例(li)(li)證是(shi)：東方希(xi)望集團(tuan)靠(kao)飼料起(qi)家(jia)卻以電解鋁行業(ye)成(cheng)為(wei)中國私營企(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)翹(qiao)楚(chu)；新希(xi)望企(qi)業(ye)千軍(jun)萬(wan)馬做飼料，而其最 大(da)的(de)(de)收(shou)益卻來自不(bu)經意(yi)間投資入股(gu)的(de)(de)銀行業(ye)和房地產業(ye)。近年新希(xi)望依靠(kao)資本力量投資控股(gu)或入股(gu)多(duo)家(jia)農(nong)牧(mu)企(qi)業(ye)，成(cheng)為(wei)因(yin)多(duo)元化(hua)而成(cheng)功的(de)(de)鮮明案例(li)(li)。
Even though many of the world’s successful enterprises, such as Nokia, have pursued a highly focused strategy in a specific sector industry, other large enterprises, such as GE, have attained even greater success by pursuing a highly-diversified strategy. Currently, China is in a transition point, moving a developing, volatile, informal market to a more mature market with rules, regulations, transparency. For instance, East Hope Group initially was a feed business, but it soon grew into one of China’s major private aluminum enterprises. Additionally, in its early stages, New Hope Group invested in banking real estate, instead of focusing its resources on the feed business. Recently, New Hope Group has a robust capital base due to its investment holdings equity participation in several agriculture companies, which have helped the company to diversify thereby lower the amount of risk to which it is exposed.
今天的中(zhong)國社會，政商關系密(mi)(mi)切(qie)(qie)，因一(yi)(yi)業(ye)興旺而(er)積(ji)累了(le)足夠(gou)資(zi)金和龐大社會資(zi)源，從而(er)更加(jia)有利于開(kai)展多(duo)元化的經營。堅持(chi)專一(yi)(yi)化、抗拒多(duo)元化，最 終才能(neng)走上成(cheng)功(gong)之路(lu)，是(shi)被全世界證明了(le)的經驗，但在(zai)中(zhong)國卻(que)并不(bu)見(jian)得靈驗。高(gao)度專業(ye)化企業(ye)構成(cheng)的群體強大而(er)高(gao) 效，如(ru)：微軟、IBM、英特爾因高(gao)度分(fen)工、密(mi)(mi)切(qie)(qie)合作而(er)令美(mei)國成(cheng)為IT業(ye)霸主；而(er)過度龐雜(za)的巨頭企業(ye)，如(ru)日(ri)韓財團(tuan)政商勾結(jie)雖使其崛起迅速，卻(que)最 終阻(zu)礙行(xing)業(ye)進步甚至危害社會的公正。
Today, the relationship between government companies has largely been liberalized. The accumulation distribution of wealth, social benefits, resources the pursuit of diversification are based on the decisions strength of individual enterprises. The most successful approach might be found by examining cases regarding the development of specific businesses industries, but these examples may be applicable to China. Highly specialized companies such as Microsoft, IBM, Intel, which began in the U.S., have become global leaders in the IT industry. On the other hand, some conglomerates in Japan South Korea may have negatively impacted the overall development of the countries because many deals were made with the respective governments, often behind closed doors.
多(duo)元化還(huan)是(shi)(shi)專一化關鍵取(qu)決(jue)于(yu)(yu)我們的目標是(shi)(shi)無限擴大自身的財富數量，還(huan)是(shi)(shi)愿(yuan)意投身于(yu)(yu)我們喜(xi)歡的事業、貢(gong)獻于(yu)(yu)我們所(suo)生長的國(guo)家(jia)。我傾向于(yu)(yu)“有(you)所(suo)為，有(you)所(suo)不為”。
The problems created by focus diversification should be decided by each individual enterprise, based upon rational choices about maximizing wealth creation, maximizing economic impact, becoming a leader within a particular industry sector. I prefer to be an expert in a given field.
三、專業化還是一體化之惑
(Specialization Integration)
專業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)(hua)(hua)地(di)把飼(si)(si)料做(zuo)精(jing)、做(zuo)細、做(zuo)大、做(zuo)強是(shi)(shi)(shi)我們的傳統，這(zhe)(zhe)一(yi)傳統首先在肉雞(ji)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)上遇到(dao)(dao)挑戰。全世界認同的趨勢(shi)(shi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)，今后很難有單一(yi)的商業(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)(hua)(hua)肉雞(ji)飼(si)(si)料生產者， 而必(bi)須(xu)實(shi)行從育種到(dao)(dao)孵化(hua)(hua)(hua)、飼(si)(si)料供(gong)應到(dao)(dao)防疫滅病、養殖到(dao)(dao)屠宰再到(dao)(dao)肉品加工的產業(ye)(ye)(ye)一(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)經營。肉雞(ji)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的這(zhe)(zhe)一(yi)趨勢(shi)(shi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)否也(ye)將推(tui)行到(dao)(dao)豬、蛋雞(ji)以(yi)及反芻動物生產領域呢(ni)?美洲(zhou)的一(yi)體(ti)化(hua)(hua)(hua)經營趨勢(shi)(shi)十分(fen)明顯(xian)，以(yi)史(shi)密(mi)斯(si)(si)菲爾德公司(si)為代表的“養殖托拉(la)斯(si)(si)式”的企業(ye)(ye)(ye)，規模(mo)巨大并完(wan)全左右了(le)市場(chang)價(jia)格，使得畜牧業(ye)(ye)(ye)生產更有計劃(hua)性，但有壟斷之虞。近年，史(shi)密(mi)斯(si)(si)菲爾德公司(si)業(ye)(ye)(ye)績出現(xian)巨額(e)虧損，說明該模(mo)式運行也(ye)并非完(wan)善。
The traditional manner of the feed industry is to specialize in feed production to increase complexity, enhance technology, improve quality. This traditional manner has encountered challenges of the broiler industry, as exemplified by the comments, “mere broiler feed producer.” The trend is toward integrated production, by assembling the different branches of the process: breeding, hatching, feed supply, epidemic prevention control, feeding, slaughtering, meat processing. This trend will likely also affect pork, layer ruminant industries. The trend has been the case in America; for example, Smithfield Foods is representative of Trus Model. Large scale production operations obviously affect the market price should lead to economies of scale. However, in recent years, Smithfield Foods presented signficant losses in its annual financial report. This data suggests imperfection with the Trus Model.
如果中國的(de)(de)未來(lai)趨(qu)勢走向一體(ti)化(hua)，我們就必(bi)須(xu)主動轉變——或自(zi)身形成完全產業(ye)(ye)鏈、或聯合(he)其他相(xiang)(xiang)關企業(ye)(ye)完成一體(ti)化(hua)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)，盡管產業(ye)(ye)化(hua)經(jing)營(ying)(ying)風(feng)險巨(ju)大(da)，但我們不(bu)(bu)(bu)得(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)面(mian)對這個現實(shi)挑(tiao)戰。與北美相(xiang)(xiang)比，歐洲的(de)(de)專業(ye)(ye)化(hua)色彩很濃(nong)。大(da)量的(de)(de)家(jia)庭農場(chang)適度(du)規(gui)模地經(jing)營(ying)(ying)，政(zheng)府(fu)并(bing)不(bu)(bu)(bu)鼓勵擴大(da)養殖規(gui)模，相(xiang)(xiang)反實(shi)行(xing)配額(e)限制，專業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)飼料企業(ye)(ye)、專業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)屠宰加工企業(ye)(ye)與農場(chang)之間簽訂合(he)約、各司其職，政(zheng)府(fu)通過政(zheng)策直接干預畜牧業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產過程(cheng)，把(ba)周(zhou)期(qi)性的(de)(de)風(feng)險分化(hua)于不(bu)(bu)(bu)同生(sheng)產環(huan)節(jie)和大(da)量的(de)(de)農場(chang)，降低了生(sheng)產風(feng)險，縮短(duan)了危(wei)機時間。
In fact, this trend toward integration can be particulary challenging, especially if the industry as a whole is consolidating. The challanges lies in converting innovation execution expertise in a highly-specialized domain, into a broader expertise in integrating other companies into a coherent structure, operating each component successfully synergistically. In a sense, compared with North American companies, European ones tend to be even more specialized. Many family farms are under the restriction of quota allocations limited scales of operation, formal contracts with specialized feed companies specialized slaughterhouses. To protect the production soundness of the market, the government has implemented direct control of the process of production. Government does this through the process known as risk-sharing: it controls each branch of production a large amount of farms to have risk characteristics that people are comfortable with, thereby reducing crises.
我仍然認為(wei)歐洲(zhou)的(de)模式更(geng)適合中國國情，然而這(zhe)種(zhong)模式在歐洲(zhou)能(neng)夠發(fa)揮功效，第(di) 一(yi)有(you)(you)賴于一(yi)個專(zhuan)業(ye)化的(de)畜牧業(ye)政府管理部門，既能(neng)未雨綢(chou)繆地(di)防范又(you)能(neng)力挽狂瀾地(di)制止；第(di) 二(er)有(you)(you)賴于一(yi)個高(gao)度(du)誠信的(de)商業(ye)文化，各生產(chan)環節真 正讓(rang)契約有(you)(you)效執行。
I still consider the model practiced in the EU to be preferable. The EU model is accomplished by maintaining crucial controls over operation of the specializated livestock chain. In addition, well-functioning commercial markets the principle of good faith are essential to a healthy economy.
四、私人化還是(shi)公眾化之惑
(Private Public)
公(gong)司通過上市在資(zi)本市場(chang)籌集資(zi)金，成(cheng)(cheng)為近年來中國企(qi)(qi)業的(de)(de)(de)(de)流行做法。飼料行業已有多家捷足先(xian)登(deng)者。在中國不(bu)可思(si)議的(de)(de)(de)(de)高市盈(ying)率的(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)本市場(chang)環(huan)境下，這(zhe)些企(qi)(qi)業一夜暴富(fu)，顯著地拉(la)開了(le)與同行之間的(de)(de)(de)(de)資(zi)本實(shi)力差距。股(gu)價虛高產生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)巨大誘惑使得(de)“上市”成(cheng)(cheng)了(le)比追求經營質量的(de)(de)(de)(de)提高更為有效的(de)(de)(de)(de)創富(fu)手段，有些企(qi)(qi)業甚至不(bu)惜為此弄虛作假。
A firm may raise funds in financial markets by issuing equity, such as common stock shares, which represent claims on the net income (income after expenses taxes) assets of a business. China has had active capital markets for many years, therefore there are many publicly-listed feed companies. Companies listed in China have tended to have extraordinarily high P/E ratios, creating sudden wealth large gaps between listed unlisted companies. It is possible that some weaker firms may actually be most eager to sell securities to unwary investors, the resulting adverse selection problem may keep stock prices in bubble territory. Furthermore, because of the market structure lack of shareholder rights today, once an investor has bought a security, thereby providing money to a firm, the recipient firm may be incentivited engage in riskier activities to commit outright fraud.
我們(men)(men)必須明白，企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)上市(shi)或曰公眾化(hua)只是(shi)發(fa)展企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)一(yi)種(zhong)手段(duan)，絕非經營(ying)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)目的(de)；企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)上市(shi)公眾化(hua)也不(bu)是(shi)企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展的(de)唯(wei) 一(yi)途徑(jing)，對于很多企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)而言并不(bu)是(shi)最 好(hao)的(de)手段(duan)。德國(guo)寶馬公司(si)(si)、美國(guo)嘉吉公司(si)(si)都是(shi)世界頂 尖的(de)大企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)，他們(men)(men)卻始(shi)終保持著私人企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)不(bu)壞金身(shen)。企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)上市(shi)后將面臨更嚴格(ge)的(de)公眾監督和機構監管， 同(tong)時也會顯著提高企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)運(yun)營(ying)成本。而為了(le)上市(shi)虛報業(ye)(ye)績(ji)、編(bian)造項目可(ke)能會使這些企(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)最 終失去競爭力。在(zai)現實(shi)中國(guo)資本市(shi)場的(de)虛高股(gu)價之(zhi)下，保持理性異(yi)乎尋常(chang)的(de)艱難，但我們(men)(men)必須實(shi)事求是(shi)。
But Chinese firms shareholders should be clear about the following concept: Going public is just an instrument of the company to finance future development, but it is the final purpose of operations. In contrast, both BMW Cargill are private holding companies well-known in the world for many generations. There are stringent reporting requirements for public companies. Their bookkeeping must follow certain strict principles, their books are subject to periodic inspection, they must make certain information available to the public. These necessary duties increase the cost of operations. Unfortunately, in order to go public, many firms in China create false financial statements fabricate profit loss accounts; but such firms will only end in bankruptcy, to the detriment of shareholders, customers, employees, society. With capital markets supporting such overvalued stock prices, it is unlikely that rational decision-making will be achieved incentivized in the near-term. But, it is necessary to be honor pragmatist.
上述(shu)困(kun)惑之(zhi)外以三聚氰胺為(wei)代表的食品安全事件，使(shi)飼料行(xing)業首當其(qi)沖成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)眾矢之(zhi)的，監管力(li)度不(bu)斷(duan)加(jia)大是政府方(fang)面矯枉(wang)過正的表現，更多(duo)(duo)行(xing)業管理(li)(li)的苛(ke)刻新規使(shi)得出現問(wen)題時政府可以不(bu)承擔任何責任，而(er)由企業完全承擔一(yi)切后果，這類(lei)似于(yu)商業活動(dong)中的霸王條(tiao)款(kuan)，扼殺了企業的活力(li)，降低了企業的競爭力(li)，企業顯(xian)然不(bu)堪重負(fu)。此外隨著人(ren)類(lei)活動(dong)的增(zeng)多(duo)(duo)，地球環(huan)境發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng)劇烈變(bian)化，生(sheng)(sheng)態(tai)系統趨于(yu)崩(beng)潰(kui)，動(dong)物疫(yi)病愈(yu)演愈(yu)烈，加(jia)之(zhi)人(ren)們對(dui)(dui)衛生(sheng)(sheng)與安全的苛(ke)刻要求和對(dui)(dui)疫(yi)病的恐慌(huang)心(xin)理(li)(li)，使(shi)飼料及(ji)畜牧業缺乏穩定的生(sheng)(sheng)存基礎(chu)，這個關系國計民生(sheng)(sheng)的行(xing)業已經成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)一(yi)個高危行(xing)業。
In addition to the challenges mentioned above, a major concern within the industry is the substandard deteriorating FSQS (food safety quality service). Many problems in the food industry have been discovered, such as melamine, which have caused the feed industry to be held at fault by the public. Such debacles, have resulted in increased supervision regulation of the industry restrictions imposed on many companies. Going forward, regulation red tape continue to worsen impose greater burdens on companies. The livestock industry is now under huge pressure, strangled companies reduced . Moreover, the world is underoing a dramatic increase in human activity, severe damage to the environment, ecological disasters, the likelihood of animal-derived epidemics. Considering all of the above components, the feed livestock industries are under negative status have recently become even higher-risk businesses.
于2009年底
